The Economy – Where Are We?

The economy – where is it at? The September unemployment rate for Napa County of 9.3% is unchanged from the prior month, and California’s 12.3% and the U.S 9.6% are only 0.1% up from prior month. Essentially, all three unemployment rates have been flat for almost 12 months. The rise has stopped, but the decrease has yet to happen. These numbers still are not saying much about under-employment – where so many people may be employed, but are living below their needs or means.

The recent Napa Chamber of Commerce Economic Summit featured a speaker, Marc Johnstone, touting a double-dip – a “W” recession. There seems to be more evidence that this more a probability than a possibility. What does this mean? That we will have another form of recession before it gets better. There is much to be said of how this will happen – could be local government induced as they cut back to meet budgets or perhaps it could be the lack of retail growth. It is not likely that this next drop will be as severe as in the past few years. In any case what it does suggest – that at best case, we will at least remain in a flat economy for well into 2011.

If you missed this year’s Napa Chamber Economic summit - check out their website www.napachamber.org for the PowerPoint’s presented. On the site, under the “Napa Chamber Resources” column – click on the first item titled “E3 Conference Resources” – for Marc Johnstone’s presentation and a wealth of information about our workforce.